Hurricane Hunters fly atmospheric river missions to improve forecasts

In the ever-changing landscape of weather forecasting, some things remain the same—the Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is busy; but rather than flying into tropical weather they are now collecting critical data from atmospheric rivers over the Pacific Ocean in support of the National Winter Season Operations Plan.

During the winter months, the 53rd WRS, commonly known as the “Hurricane Hunters,” shifts their focus to these narrow corridors of concentrated moisture that can bring intense rainfall and cause significant flooding in the western United States.

Crews, with the assistance of maintenance and support personnel, have flown 10 missions from Mather Airfield, Calif., four missions from Yokota Air Base, Japan, and one from their home station at Keesler Air Force Base, Miss., to gather vital, real-time atmospheric data to improve forecasts for atmospheric rivers impacting the western United States and significant winter weather events in the southeast.

“This year is the first time we’ve operated out of Yokota,” said Lt. Col. Steven Burton, 403rd Operations Group deputy commander and 53rd WRS navigator. “We did this for logistical reasons. The base has a C-130J mission, and it is closer to the systems we need to fly.”

The unit began flying the atmospheric rivers missions in 2016, 2018 and 2019 out of Mather, Calif., Joint Base Lewis—McChord Air Force Base, Wash., and Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii, as part of a research-based project, with flights added each year, until it became integrated into the NSWOP in 2020.

These missions are especially vital in understanding the behavior of atmospheric rivers, said Lt. Col. Ryan Rickert, 53rd WRS aerial reconnaissance weather officer.

“The data we collect is important for forecasters at the National Weather Service and researchers to track atmospheric rivers, which are large amounts of water vapor in the earth’s atmosphere,” said Rickert. “Our data is invaluable in improving the accuracy of weather models, especially in predicting the timing, intensity, and impact of these events. Officials then use this information to make decisions in managing resources for watersheds and reservoirs in California and nearby western states.”

The squadron’s missions involved flying aircraft from 24,000 to 32,000 feet to collect crucial horizontal and vertical profiles of the winds, temperature, humidity, dewpoint and pressure across areas of sensitivity for the forecast models. Equipped with advanced weather sensors and devices like dropsondes—small parachute-equipped sensors that are dropped into the storm—crews obtain data that could not be accessed by traditional ground-based weather stations or satellites, said Rickert.

“We drop about 25 to 30 dropsondes during a 9-to-10-hour flight,” said Burton.

In addition to data collected from AR flights, support for these reconnaissance missions begins as early as November with the release of buoys across the eastern Pacific which are funded by the NOAA Global Drifter Program and built by Langrangian Drifter Laboratory at Scripps Institute of Oceanography, said Lt. Col. Mark Withee, 53rd WRS navigator.

“These buoys gather data on sea conditions, are then combined with information from atmospheric river reconnaissance missions,” he said.

This atmospheric and sea-state data is then transmitted directly to the National Center for Environmental Prediction, a key division of the National Weather Service. The NCEP uses this information to improve weather forecasting models that predict everything from short-term weather changes to long-term patterns, including atmospheric rivers, said Rickert.

One of the key benefits of this information is its ability to help local authorities prepare for floods, said Burton.

“When atmospheric rivers bring heavy rainfall, it can quickly lead to overflowing rivers and reservoirs, threatening communities downstream,” he said. “The data we collect can provide advance warning, allowing for better management of reservoir levels and the timely issuance of flood warnings.”

As the 53rd WRS continues to fly their high-altitude missions from both Mather and Yokota until late March, their work remains a crucial element in a larger system designed to protect people, property, and resources nationwide.

(Tech. Sgt. Shelton Sherrill contributed to this article)